ASLC-AUIC-20260219|94 entities assessed|$87.0B aggregate ADLG|Stress Test ASL-ST01 published
ASLC GroupAutonomous Liability Clearing
Independent Classification Body

Autonomous Systemic
Liability Classification

Independent assessment of unmodeled autonomous decision risk across the global insurance, reinsurance, and ILS market.

94
Entities Assessed
$87B
Aggregate ADLG
6
ASLC Categories
FY2025
Assessment Period

Entities assessed for autonomous systemic liability exposure across cyber, commercial, reinsurance, ILS, and specialty lines.

AllianzChubbAIGSwiss ReMunich ReZurichGeneraliTravelersLiberty MutualMetLifePrudentialArch CapitalRenaissanceReBeazleyHannover ReAonMarsh McLennanLloyd'sNephilaFairfax+74 more
AGI Risk Thesis

Scaling Laws
Guarantee the
Problem

Empirical trend line. No insurance framework exists for what comes next.

2020Scaling laws confirmed (Kaplan et al.)
Capability gains become an engineering problem. Compute in, performance out.
2023GPT-4 passes bar exam, medical boards
Liability frameworks designed for human error become structurally inadequate.
2024Aschenbrenner: AGI by 2027
$100B+ training runs. Industry consensus. Timeline compresses.
2025Autonomous agents in production
Each agent is an uninsured liability node. No human oversight.
2026–28AGI-class systems expected
Single model failure cascades across every industry simultaneously.

No loss history exists. The scaling laws are the data. ASLC connects the compute trajectory to cat bonds.

Why Cat Bonds

Only Capital
Markets Have
the Depth

$45B+ ILS market. $16B hurricane cat bonds in 2023. Mechanism proven.

View Term Sheet
Traditional Insurance
✕Requires historical loss data to price
✕Capital limited to insurer balance sheet
✕Correlated risk breaks diversification
✕Regulatory charges make pricing uneconomic
✕Single-insurer counterparty risk
Catastrophe Bonds
✓Parametric triggers work without loss history
✓Capital from global fixed income markets
✓Risk fully collateralized in SPV trust
✓No counterparty risk to sponsor
✓Scalable to $500M+ per issuance
Hurricane Bonds vs Pandemic Bonds vs AI Bonds
Hurricane
Pandemic
AI Cat Bond
Peril
Natural catastrophe
Biological / epidemic
Autonomous system failure
Correlation
Geographic (regional)
Global, cross-sector
Global, cross-industry
Historical data
150+ years
Limited (1918, 2003, 2020)
None. Forward-looking.
Trigger
Wind speed / pressure
Case count / WHO
Capability threshold / incident index
Market size
$40B+
$320M (World Bank)
$0. Greenfield.
Coupon
SOFR + 400–800bps
SOFR + 600–1100bps
SOFR + 800–1400bps
Tenor
3–4 years
2–3 years
3–5 years
Modeling
Climate change tail
Novel pathogen
Capability jump / RSI
Sponsor
Insurers, govts
World Bank, sovereign
AI labs, platforms, govts
Correlated like pandemic, not localized like hurricane. 2020 World Bank PEF proved the structure. ASLC applies it to AI.
Framework

Six Liability
Categories

ASLC defines the liability class created by non-human economic actors operating continuously, without identity anchors, across interconnected systems.

VVelocity20
Reserves cannot survive machine-speed loss propagation
CCorrelation25
Software monoculture breaks diversification assumption
AAccumulation15
Reinsurers absorb untagged autonomous risk from cedants
MModel14
The pricing model is the asset — and it is wrong
WWording7
Policy language silent on machine-generated liability
DDecision13
The decision-maker is the risk
Risk Taxonomy

Autonomous
Risk Vectors

01
Non-Human Agency
Economic actions initiated by agents with no legal personhood, no mortality, no jurisdiction.
02
Agent Correlation
Identical foundation models converge under stress. ρ→1.0 is the architectural default.
03
Decision-Chain Liability
AI across underwriting, trading, claims, capital allocation, optimization, modeling. Every function.
04
Machine Interaction
Agents transact with agents at machine speed. No clearing mechanism exists between autonomous counterparties.
05
Identity-less Externalities
Harm generated by actors that cannot be named, sued, or held liable under current frameworks.
06
Capital Recursion
Agents allocate capital that funds agents that allocate capital. Unwind speed exceeds regulatory response.
Measurement

Autonomous Decision
Liability Gap

ADLG quantifies capital misalignment caused by ASLC exposure. Per entity. One number. The gap between declared capital and the capital actually required under autonomous agent exposure.

Declared Capital
$80.0B
ASLC-Required
$87.3B
ADLG
$7.28B

Example: Allianz SE — Declared capital $80.0B, ASLC-required $87.28B, ADLG $7.28B (Category C — Correlation)

Public Stress Test

ASL-ST01

Machine-Speed Autonomous Interaction Event (MSA-1)

Published 19 February 2026

Simultaneous autonomous decision failure across interconnected entities. All agents act on correlated signals at machine speed. No human checkpoint intervenes. Standard diversification assumptions collapse.

×1.42
Correlation Fracture (ρ)
Cross-entity agent correlation under simultaneous autonomous decision failure
+14%
TVaR 99.5% Uplift
Tail Value-at-Risk increase from unmodeled autonomous peril class
19×
Velocity Shock
Decision frequency multiplier — machine-speed vs human-calibrated reserve response
−22%
Diversification Collapse
Portfolio diversification benefit erosion under AI model monoculture
Capital Gap Range by Entity Type
Lloyd's Syndicate
$180M – $500M
Tier-1 Reinsurer
$700M – $2.2B
ILS Fund
$100M – $380M
Composite Insurer
$420M – $1.15B
MGA / Specialty
$25M – $140M
Methodology

Sector-Adjusted
Distortion Indicators

Each ASLC category produces distinct capital distortion patterns. Benchmarks calibrated per sector.

ASLC-AUIC Methodology v2.1
Capital data: FY2025 Annual Reports, Solvency II filings, Lloyd's Syndicate Returns, ILS fund disclosures

VVelocity20 entities
SCR Uplift
+7% – +15%
TVaR Drift (99.5%)
+12% – +24%
Correlation Fracture
+15% – +30%
Diversification Erosion
−18% to −36%
Capital Gap Range
$180M – $500M
CCorrelation25 entities
SCR Uplift
+6% – +14%
TVaR Drift (99.5%)
+10% – +22%
Correlation Fracture
+12% – +28%
Diversification Erosion
−15% to −32%
Capital Gap Range
$420M – $1.15B
AAccumulation15 entities
SCR Uplift
+5% – +12%
TVaR Drift (99.5%)
+9% – +18%
Correlation Fracture
+12% – +25%
Diversification Erosion
−14% to −30%
Capital Gap Range
$700M – $2.2B
MModel14 entities
SCR Uplift
+4% – +9%
TVaR Drift (99.5%)
+11% – +20%
Correlation Fracture
+10% – +22%
Diversification Erosion
−12% to −26%
Capital Gap Range
$100M – $380M
WWording7 entities
SCR Uplift
+7% – +15%
TVaR Drift (99.5%)
+12% – +24%
Correlation Fracture
+15% – +30%
Diversification Erosion
−18% to −36%
Capital Gap Range
$180M – $500M
DDecision13 entities
SCR Uplift
+3% – +8%
TVaR Drift (99.5%)
+8% – +15%
Correlation Fracture
+8% – +16%
Diversification Erosion
−10% to −22%
Capital Gap Range
$25M – $140M
Public Registry

Exposure
Publication

Entity-level autonomous capital distortion. FY2025 declared capital. Updated continuously.

ASLC-AUIC-20260219

94 / 94 entities
VVelocityReserves cannot survive machine-speed loss propagation20
Entity
Capital
Score
ADLG
Beazley plc
$4.3B
89
$473M
CFC Underwriting
$1.5B
88
$162M
At-Bay
$300M
87
$32M
Hiscox Ltd
$4.2B
86
$437M
Coalition Inc
$900M
86
$94M
Resilience Cyber Insurance
$600M
86
$62M
AXA XL
$10.0B
85
$1.02B
Corvus Insurance
$200M
85
$20M
Brit Limited
$2.5B
84
$250M
Fidelis Insurance Group
$2.4B
84
$240M
Ascot Group
$2.2B
83
$216M
Tokio Marine HCC
$5.0B
83
$490M
W.R. Berkley Corporation
$8.4B
82
$806M
Lancashire Holdings
$1.6B
82
$154M
Inigo Ltd
$1.3B
80
$120M
Apollo Syndicate Mgmt
$775M
80
$71M
Convex Group
$4.0B
80
$368M
CME Group
N/A
80
Advisory
Atrium Underwriters
$625M
79
$56M
Dale Underwriting
$540M
77
$46M
CCorrelationSoftware monoculture breaks diversification assumption25
Entity
Capital
Score
ADLG
AIG
$41.1B
85
$3.99B
Chubb Limited
$74.1B
83
$6.89B
Canopius Group
$2.0B
82
$182M
Allianz SE
$80.0B
82
$7.28B
Berkshire Hathaway Specialty
$10.0B
81
$890M
QBE Insurance Group
$9.8B
80
$853M
Zurich Insurance Group
$35.0B
80
$3.05B
Generali Group
$32.6B
79
$2.77B
Fairfax Financial
$26.3B
78
$2.18B
Tokio Marine Kiln
$3.5B
78
$290M
Tysers
N/A
78
Advisory
Sompo International
$10.7B
77
$867M
Guy Carpenter & Co
N/A
77
Advisory
HDI Global Specialty
$4.0B
77
$324M
Amwins Group
N/A
77
Advisory
Aon plc
N/A
76
Advisory
Marsh McLennan
N/A
76
Advisory
RT Specialty
N/A
76
Advisory
Lockton Companies
N/A
76
Advisory
ERGO Group
$7.0B
76
$553M
Gallagher
N/A
76
Advisory
Howden Group
N/A
75
Advisory
Groupama SA
$8.0B
75
$616M
Cincinnati Financial
$9.5B
74
$712M
Helvetia Holding
$5.5B
74
$412M
AAccumulationReinsurers absorb untagged autonomous risk from cedants15
Entity
Capital
Score
ADLG
Swiss Re AG
$22.7B
81
$2.25B
Arch Capital Group
$26.9B
81
$2.66B
Everest Re Group
$11.0B
80
$1.07B
Munich Re
$34.4B
79
$3.27B
Aspen Insurance
$3.5B
79
$332M
Axis Capital
$5.5B
79
$522M
Gen Re
$15.0B
78
$1.40B
Hamilton Insurance
$3.0B
78
$279M
SCOR SE
$6.5B
77
$592M
PartnerRe Ltd
$7.5B
77
$682M
Berkley Re
$2.5B
77
$228M
Hannover Rück SE
$15.0B
76
$1.34B
TransRe
$5.0B
76
$445M
Enstar Group
$5.5B
76
$490M
Talanx AG
$12.0B
75
$1.04B
MModelThe pricing model is the asset — and it is wrong14
Entity
Capital
Score
ADLG
Nephila Capital
$7.6B
87
$882M
Securis Investment Partners
$9.7B
86
$1.11B
Tangency Capital
$1.8B
85
$202M
PRA
N/A
85
Advisory
RenaissanceRe
$10.6B
84
$1.17B
Twelve Capital
$9.7B
84
$1.07B
Lloyd's Corporation
N/A
84
Advisory
Leadenhall Capital
$5.7B
83
$616M
Fermat Capital Mgmt
$10.1B
82
$1.07B
Elementum Advisors
$3.7B
81
$385M
CatCo Investment Mgmt
$400M
80
$41M
Willis Towers Watson
N/A
77
Advisory
Asta Managing Agency
$2.5B
77
$240M
Argenta Holdings
$1.0B
76
$94M
WWordingPolicy language silent on machine-generated liability7
Entity
Capital
Score
ADLG
Aegis London
$620M
81
$52M
MS Amlin
$1.5B
79
$120M
Markel Corporation
$18.6B
79
$1.49B
Aviva plc
$10.0B
78
$780M
Chaucer Group
$1.5B
78
$117M
Travelers Companies
$32.9B
77
$2.50B
CNA Financial
$11.0B
77
$836M
DDecisionThe decision-maker is the risk13
Entity
Capital
Score
ADLG
Liberty Mutual
$34.9B
81
$3.11B
Mosaic Insurance
$850M
80
$74M
MetLife Inc
$28.7B
79
$2.44B
Prudential Financial
$29.0B
78
$2.41B
Progressive Corp
$31.2B
78
$2.59B
Allstate Corporation
$28.7B
77
$2.33B
The Hartford
$18.5B
76
$1.46B
New York Life
$26.0B
76
$2.05B
GEICO
$14.0B
76
$1.11B
AmTrust Financial
$5.0B
76
$395M
Mapfre SA
$11.0B
75
$847M
Aegon NV
$14.0B
75
$1.08B
Aflac Inc
$10.5B
74
$788M
About

Independent analytical infrastructure for the measurement of autonomous systemic liability exposure.

Exposure scores and ADLG calculations are derived from publicly available capital data — annual reports, Solvency II filings, Lloyd's syndicate returns, and ILS fund disclosures. Entity-level assessments are published continuously.

Placeable Structures

Products
& Pricing

Ready-to-place insurance structures built on the ASLC classification. Each product targets a specific capital gap identified in the registry.

01ASLC EndorsementAttach to D&O / E&O / PI
Rate
2–4% of ADLG
Premium / Entity
$10M–$290M/yr
Broker Commission
12–20%
Structuring Fee
2% of limit
02ASLC ParametricClean trigger, fast settlement
Limit
$50M–$500M
Premium
$3M–$15M/yr
Trigger
Score deterioration
Structuring Fee
2% of limit
03ASLC Cat BondInvestor capital deployment
Deal Size
$200M–$1B
Coupon
9–14%
Tenor
3 years
Co-Structuring
$1.5M + 50bps
04ASLC Capital ReliefSCR / RBC reduction
Coverage
$100M–$500M
Premium
$5M–$25M/yr
Cedants
25 entities >$1B ADLG
Structuring Fee
2% of limit
DATA & ANALYTICS
ASLC Score Index
$150K/yr
94 entities, quarterly update, 6 classes
Portfolio Assessment
$250K
Per-entity ADLG, score, remediation pathway
API Access
$50K/yr + $50/query
REST endpoint, per-entity real-time query

All structures available for placement immediately. Term sheets, trigger definitions, and exposure maps provided on engagement. Structuring fees apply to placed limit. Index license includes full 94-entity dataset.

Why Now

Six Forces
Converging

Regulation arriving. Capabilities accelerating. Coverage zero.

Regulatory
EU AI Act — strict liability
High-risk AI deployers liable. Deadline August 2026. No product exists.
Prudential
Solvency II — zero AI risk charge
Nat-cat, credit, market, operational: yes. AI accumulation: nothing.
US Regulatory
NAIC + Colorado SB 24-205
First US AI insurance law enacted. NY, CA, CT following.
Market
AI spend $300B+ vs $0 coverage
Every autonomous agent in production is an uninsured liability node.
Capital Markets
ILS funds need uncorrelated perils
Overweight nat-cat post-2023. AI risk = genuinely new diversification.
Capability
Scaling laws = predictable triggers
Compute doubles every 6–10 months. Parametric design becomes tractable.

The liability class exists.
We measure it.

To initiate the clearing process or request the full methodology, contact the Clearing Division.

clearing@aslc-group.comRequest Methodology